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Probability and Risk Models of Demand for the Price of Commodity(PDF)

南京师范大学学报(工程技术版)[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2006年03期
Page:
70-74
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Probability and Risk Models of Demand for the Price of Commodity
Author(s):
HUA Cuncai
School of Mathematics,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650092,China
Keywords:
comm odity probability of dem and risk of dem and ma them a tica lm ode ls
PACS:
F224
DOI:
-
Abstract:
Probab ility and r isk models for the price of commod ity a re stud ied from the dem and ing factor. F irstly, the probability distr ibution of dem and and form ula of the pr ice are g iven w ith m ax im a l probab ility of demand. It is proved that the price at wh ich the dem and is m ax im al is that o fm ax im al probability o f dem and, and that it is lower than the one w ith m ax im al pro fit. The price w ith m ax ima l dem and causes popu la rity of pr ice and consum ption and can be understood as public pr ice of comm odity. Secondly, recurring to the measurem ent o f r isk in financ ial m athem atics and ex tending the de finition of the var iance, a risk function o f dem and is obta ined for the price var iable. Furtherm ore, a-f ter com pa ring the r isks o f dem and for five spec ial prices, it is conc luded that the r isks are o rdered in turn from m in-i m um tom ax imum for the expec tation pr ice, the pricew ith m ax im a l probab ility of dem and and the pr ice w ith m ax ima l profit, and the low est and the h ighest pr ices. Th ird ly, the probab ility and risks o f dem and fo r floating or discounting pr ices are discussed. Conditions are g iven for inc reasing and low ering the risks o f dem and due to ad justing the pr ices. Fina lly, the results are ver ified by investigating the favo r of cho ices o f passengers fo r the floating prices during the period o f spring transportation in Kunm ing C ity.

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Last Update: 2013-04-29