|Table of Contents|

Nowcasting Tourist Flow Volume of Tourist Attraction Based on the EMD-VAR Model:A Case Study of Nanjing Confucius Temple(PDF)

南京师范大学学报（工程技术版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2023年02期
Page:
77-86
Research Field:
管理科学与工程
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Nowcasting Tourist Flow Volume of Tourist Attraction Based on the EMD-VAR Model:A Case Study of Nanjing Confucius Temple
Author(s):
Ding Jie1; 2; Ding Chunmei3; Zhang Jianxin3
(1.School of Tourism,Nanjing Institute of Tourism and Hospitality,Nanjing 211100,China)
(2.School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China)
(3.School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)
Keywords:
Baidu index; fluctuation correlation; nowcasting; empirical mode decomposition; EMD-VAR model
PACS:
F592.7
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-1292.2023.02.011
Abstract:
Big data from network search provides a new perspective for the study of tourist flow volume prediction,but the traditional econometric models used in most studies are difficult to deal with the large number of nonlinear fluctuation characteristics in the timing series of network search and tourist flow,which leads to the unsatisfactory prediction accuracy. In this paper,empirical mode decomposition(EMD)is introduced to improve the vector autoregression(VAR)model to EMD-VAR model. EMD method is used to decompose the daily network search data and tourist flow volume of The Yangtze River Delta of Nanjing Confucius Temple Scenic Area,and a series of components with different frequency scales are obtained. Then,based on the perspective of fluctuation correlation,components of both network search data and tourist flow volume in the same scale are combined to establish a VAR model for prediction. The results show that:(1)The fluctuation cycle of network search is longer than that of tourist flow volume.(2)The compactness of correlation between network search and tourists flow volume is the greatest during the statutory holiday period.(3)The prediction accuracy of the EMD-VAR model is better than that of ARMA model and VAR model,respectively.

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Last Update: 2023-06-15