[1]柏宏权,李军龙.OD支持的公路交通预测系统的设计与实现[J].南京师范大学学报(工程技术版),2011,11(03):083-88.
 Bai Hongquan,Li Junlong.Design and Implementation of Traffic Demand Estimation System Based on OD[J].Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Engineering and Technology),2011,11(03):083-88.
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OD支持的公路交通预测系统的设计与实现
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南京师范大学学报(工程技术版)[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
11卷
期数:
2011年03期
页码:
083-88
栏目:
出版日期:
2011-11-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Design and Implementation of Traffic Demand Estimation System Based on OD
作者:
柏宏权1李军龙2
( 1. 南京师范大学教育技术系,江苏南京210097) ( 2. 东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096)
Author(s):
Bai Hongquan1Li Junlong2
1.Department of Educational Technology,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210097,China
关键词:
公路OD交通预测四阶段预测重力模型
Keywords:
OD of highwaytraffic predictionfour-phase predictiongravity model
分类号:
U491.14
摘要:
设计并实现了一个基于OD支持的公路交通需求预测系统.系统改进了交通量预测的重力模型,并把虚拟路网用于预测过程.实验结果表明,用平均增长率模型与改进的重力模型得到的OD期望线有较大差别,这体现了两种方法进行需求预测中的区别和不同的适用范围.从两种方法预测结果在区域公路网上分配所得交通量分布可以看出,总体上两种方法交通量的分布都沿着主要的交通走廊,分布形态总体相差较小,但局部路段交通量仍有差别.分别用两种方法与公路局实际年度公路调查数据比较发现,重力模型预测所得结果比使用平均增长率模型预测结果有更高的预测精度
Abstract:
Based on OD,a traffic demand estimation system is designed and implemented. The system improves the gravity model of the traffic estimation,and uses the virtual highway network on the basis of practical highway network. Experimental results show that the average growth rate model and modified gravity models obtained OD expectations lines are quite different,which reflects that the two methods have different scopes in traffic forecasting. Predictions from the two methods in the area distribution of road traffic can be seen that the overall traffic on the two methods of distribution are along the main transport corridors,a smaller difference between the overall distribution pattern,but there are still differences between the local road traffics. The two ways are used to compare with the survey data offered by Highway Bureau,and the finding is that: the results used the gravity model predicts have a higher prediction accuracy than the average growth rate model.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
通讯联系人: 柏宏权,博士,讲师,研究方向: 计算机应用. E-mail: baihongquan@163. Com
更新日期/Last Update: 2013-03-21