[1]昝　欣,宗　鹏,吴祈宗.高等院校教师人才流动的Markov-chain预测模型[J].南京师范大学学报(工程技术版),2006,06(03):075-78.
　ZAN Xin~,ZONG Peng~,WU Qizong~.Markov-chain Forecasting Model for Talents Flowage in Institutions of Higher Education[J].Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Engineering and Technology),2006,06(03):075-78.
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高等院校教师人才流动的Markov-chain预测模型
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南京师范大学学报（工程技术版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
06卷
期数:
2006年03期
页码:
075-78
栏目:
出版日期:
2006-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Markov-chain Forecasting Model for Talents Flowage in Institutions of Higher Education
作者:
昝　欣1 ;  宗　鹏2 ;  吴祈宗1
1. 北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081; 2. 唐山师范学院数学系,河北唐山063000
Author(s):
ZAN Xin~1; ZONG Peng~2; WU Qizong~1
1.School of Administration and Economy,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;2.Department of Mathematics,Tangshan Teacher’s College,Tangshan 063000,China
关键词:
人才流动;  马尔科夫过程;  马尔科夫链;  Markov-chain预测模型;  人力资源
Keywords:
talents flowage;  markov p rocess;  markov chain;  markov2chain forecastingmodel;  human resources
分类号:
TP18
摘要:
介绍并解析随机过程理论中的马尔科夫过程与马尔科夫链;针对高等院校教师人才流动变化过程,利用马尔科夫过程分析方法建立描述人员流动变化趋势的Markov-chain预测模型,详细阐述了模型的算法步骤.以某所高等院校教师人才流动的状态转移数据作为算例,运用新建立的预测模型,对该院校教师人才的流动趋势做出了预测分析.最后,将教师进修状态纳入分析范围,进行了教师职业生涯和职务发展趋势预测的深入分析.应用模型对实际算例的求解结果表明:Markov-chain预测模型及算法,叙述简洁、运算方便,为高等院校教师人才流动,乃至其他行业人才流动的预测提供了一种新的、有效的思路和方法.
Abstract:
This paper introduces and analyzesMarkov p rocess andMarkov chain of stochastic p rocess theory firstly. Then, aiming at the p rocess of talents flowage in institutions of higher education, it p resents a forecasting model namedMarkov2chain forecasting modelwhich can describe the tendency of the talents flowage, and elaborates the al2 gorithm step in detail. With the dada of state - transfer of teachers of one college as an examp le, itmakes the tenden2 cy forecast analysis bymeans of the model. Finally, it also takes the state of teachers taking advanced courses into consideration, carries on thorough analysis of the teacher p rofession and development tendency forecast. Operation re2 sult indicates that theMarkov2chain forecasting model and the algorithm is succinct and convenient, which offers a new idea for forecasting the trend of talents flowage in organizations.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
作者简介: 昝　欣(19782) ,女,博士研究生,主要从事运筹与管理、决策理论与方法等方面的学习与研究. E-mail: zanxin@bit. edu. cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2013-04-29